PHFOR the first six items on this list, please refer to Parts 1 and 2 of this column, published on December 30 and January 2. Just to recap, however, here's a summary so far, in order of likelihood:
1. More extreme weather events.
2. Marcos Jr. elected president.
3. Chaotic, possibly to the point of failure, midterm elections in the US.
4. A Black Swan, i.e., an unexpected and unpredictable event of great impact.
5. Crypto market crash.
6. Significant economic slowdown in China.
Now, on to the tail end of the list, things that may seem improbable but are entirely plausible and perhaps even still likely to occur:
7. Serious sectarian unrest in India. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, himself a Hindu extremist, has been subtly and not-so-subtly prodding the country to a violent conflict between the Hindu majority and everyone else. As Modi's promised economic and quality of life improvements continue to fail to come to pass, the sectarian tension has been a convenient cover for his government's shortcomings. Sooner or later, however, things will go too far, and one or more of the minorities who are being persecuted are going to pay it back with interest.
8. The coronavirus is 'officially' declared over. With the Omicron variant currently rampaging across the world this prediction may seem like a stretch at first, but consider the underlying mood. Governments, businesses, and individuals alike have seemed to reach the limit of their endurance, and are increasingly signaling capitulation; if the Omicron wave passes relatively quickly and with an acceptably small death toll, the world will probably just give up and live with it. The World Health Organization, which is driven by politics as much as actual public health considerations — after all, it relies on governments for its funding — will likely agree, reducing Covid-19 from the status of a global pandemic.
The decision will almost certainly not be medically justified, and the coronavirus will continue to be a problem, but instead of encouraging people to prevent and avoid it, government rhetoric will shift to 'not letting Covid-19 disrupt normal life and business.' The world might get away with it, but it might very well also be setting the stage for the next pandemic.
9. War in Ukraine. Although Russian President Vladimir Putin has dialed down the heat on a potentially explosive situation by pulling back forces near Ukraine and indicating a willingness to discuss things with the US (representing the interests of NATO in this case), this is an intermission, not an end to the conflict. There really is nothing the West or Putin could offer the Ukrainian separatists to mollify them, short of formally recognizing a separatist Donbas state, so they are not likely to be held in check for long. When — not if — the fighting flares up again, it will take a great deal of restraint on the part of the bigger powers to stay out of it, and whether or not they can is an open question.
10. Facebook is broken up. Despite Facebook's attempt to paper over its reputation as a social cancer by rebranding itself as 'Meta' (which my sarcastic teenage daughter insists is pronounced 'meat-ay'), it does not seem lawmakers or regulators have been fooled, and are continuing to put the company and its off-putting head Mark Zuckerberg under pressure. Facebook was recently ordered to divest itself of the popular image-hosting site Giphy, and other brands that Facebook gobbled up in recent years such as WhatsApp and Instagram are being eyed as well.
I think several things will happen to Facebook, or rather 'Meta,' this year. One or both of the aforementioned brands will be sold off, either as a result of a direct order from US regulators or courts to do so, or due to financial pressures coming from regulatory action against the company in other countries.
The most important of these will be the long-overdue imposition of liability on Facebook for harmful content it hosts. This will force the company to make some rapid changes to avoid having the floodgates of lawsuits open, and these changes will reduce its appeal to users and advertisers, with obvious implications for the company's revenues. It is big enough and rich enough that its survival will not be threatened, and it is unlikely that an appealing alternative that can pose a competitive threat will appear — at least not this year — but it will find itself diminished both in profitability and influence.
So there you have it, 10 predictions for 2022. I realize it is not the most optimistic list, but the past two years have not given us many reasons for optimism, other than our own stubborn choice to be optimistic. Let's hope that this year gives us something else to work with, for a change.
1. More extreme weather events.
2. Marcos Jr. elected president.
3. Chaotic, possibly to the point of failure, midterm elections in the US.
4. A Black Swan, i.e., an unexpected and unpredictable event of great impact.
5. Crypto market crash.
6. Significant economic slowdown in China.
Now, on to the tail end of the list, things that may seem improbable but are entirely plausible and perhaps even still likely to occur:
7. Serious sectarian unrest in India. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, himself a Hindu extremist, has been subtly and not-so-subtly prodding the country to a violent conflict between the Hindu majority and everyone else. As Modi's promised economic and quality of life improvements continue to fail to come to pass, the sectarian tension has been a convenient cover for his government's shortcomings. Sooner or later, however, things will go too far, and one or more of the minorities who are being persecuted are going to pay it back with interest.
8. The coronavirus is 'officially' declared over. With the Omicron variant currently rampaging across the world this prediction may seem like a stretch at first, but consider the underlying mood. Governments, businesses, and individuals alike have seemed to reach the limit of their endurance, and are increasingly signaling capitulation; if the Omicron wave passes relatively quickly and with an acceptably small death toll, the world will probably just give up and live with it. The World Health Organization, which is driven by politics as much as actual public health considerations — after all, it relies on governments for its funding — will likely agree, reducing Covid-19 from the status of a global pandemic.
The decision will almost certainly not be medically justified, and the coronavirus will continue to be a problem, but instead of encouraging people to prevent and avoid it, government rhetoric will shift to 'not letting Covid-19 disrupt normal life and business.' The world might get away with it, but it might very well also be setting the stage for the next pandemic.
9. War in Ukraine. Although Russian President Vladimir Putin has dialed down the heat on a potentially explosive situation by pulling back forces near Ukraine and indicating a willingness to discuss things with the US (representing the interests of NATO in this case), this is an intermission, not an end to the conflict. There really is nothing the West or Putin could offer the Ukrainian separatists to mollify them, short of formally recognizing a separatist Donbas state, so they are not likely to be held in check for long. When — not if — the fighting flares up again, it will take a great deal of restraint on the part of the bigger powers to stay out of it, and whether or not they can is an open question.
10. Facebook is broken up. Despite Facebook's attempt to paper over its reputation as a social cancer by rebranding itself as 'Meta' (which my sarcastic teenage daughter insists is pronounced 'meat-ay'), it does not seem lawmakers or regulators have been fooled, and are continuing to put the company and its off-putting head Mark Zuckerberg under pressure. Facebook was recently ordered to divest itself of the popular image-hosting site Giphy, and other brands that Facebook gobbled up in recent years such as WhatsApp and Instagram are being eyed as well.
I think several things will happen to Facebook, or rather 'Meta,' this year. One or both of the aforementioned brands will be sold off, either as a result of a direct order from US regulators or courts to do so, or due to financial pressures coming from regulatory action against the company in other countries.
The most important of these will be the long-overdue imposition of liability on Facebook for harmful content it hosts. This will force the company to make some rapid changes to avoid having the floodgates of lawsuits open, and these changes will reduce its appeal to users and advertisers, with obvious implications for the company's revenues. It is big enough and rich enough that its survival will not be threatened, and it is unlikely that an appealing alternative that can pose a competitive threat will appear — at least not this year — but it will find itself diminished both in profitability and influence.
So there you have it, 10 predictions for 2022. I realize it is not the most optimistic list, but the past two years have not given us many reasons for optimism, other than our own stubborn choice to be optimistic. Let's hope that this year gives us something else to work with, for a change.
