PHThe narrow significance of the Sabina incident is that it could yet spark a military encounter at sea. China might make more aggressive attempts to bully the Philippines out of the shoal. The broader implications go far beyond a few rocks and ships, since such an encounter would test America’s appetite to come to the aid of the Philippines: risking American lives and treasure over an uninhabited shoal would be unpopular in Washington. Yet if the Philippines retreats it is unlikely to get the shoal back. That would trigger memories of its loss of Scarborough Shoal in 2012, and prompt questions in Manila about the reliability of its bigger treaty ally.
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